A Challenge for Developing Countries

….TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Introductory Remarks:

I am highly honored by the Director/Chief Executive of The Regional Programme for Technology Management (REPTEM) for inviting me to deliver the first in the series of Late Prof. Gordian Ezekwe’s Memorial Lecture in Technology Development, instituted by the Federal Ministry of Science and Technology (FMST).

I see the invitation as recognition of my long association with late Prof. Ezekwe. In the first place, our intimate professional working partnership in technology matters had lasted for over three decades beginning with our University teaching and research in which we share similar orientation, the exploits of science and technology in the defunct State of Biafra, 1967-1970, and the exciting experience we shared in the formulation and execution of science and technology policies and programs for National development from 1976 until his death in June 1997.

One may also see the invitation as arising from a perception that one who served as a key figure in the thinking, the progress and direction of S&T policies, programs and developments in the country, spanning through the defunct Nigeria Council for Science and Technology (NCST), 1971-1976, its successor the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), 1977-1979 and the eventual evolution of the current FMST in 1980, in which late Prof. Ezekwe served as a Nigerian Federal Government Minister from 1990-1991, would be in a better position to forecast reasonably the possible technological developments in the next millennium and their implications for developing countries in particular those in Africa. Whatever the reasons I am very honored, glad and grateful to undertake the assignment.

Technology and Research Industry in the World of Nations:

The economic status of any Nation, developing or developed, is determined by the following indices, namely:

1. Endowment in Natural resources both Agricultural (Cocoa, Palm oil/ Kernel, Cotton, groundnuts, maize, tomato, large diameter Timber wood, Rubber, livestock hides and skins, etc.) and Mineral resources (Solid, Liquid and Gaseous) primary raw materials resources,

2. The State of domestic endogenous Scientific and Technical capabilities and or capacities for the exploitation and packaging of these National resources for domestic use and or for export, and

3. Technology and Research and Development (R&D) Industry, respectively.

All the above are determined by (a) the nature, contents and direction of the manpower training and education in in the disciplines of Science, Engineering and Technology, (b) Scientific Research for knowledge and deeper understanding of the intricacies of these disciplines which take place either in the Universities, Academies, or Polytechnics, Colleges of Technology, Technical Colleges and professional Entrepreneurship Institutions for technical and professional Skills development. All the latter activities may lead to new scientific knowledge, inventions and discoveries (c) Research and development (R&D) activities namely conversion of the scientific research results, inventions and discoveries into technologies for production and services in the economy and industrial goods (i.e. goods outside Natural materials) namely capital goods, consumer goods items and industrial materials respectively, and (d) Mass production of technologies and industrial goods in the economy. The activities namely (a), (b) (c) and (d) above is what referred to as Technology and Research industry in any economy., Therefore, in brief, Technology and Research Industry in any economy is determined by the domestic endogenous capability and or capacity for Science and technology activities as defined above including R&D and production of modern technologies and manufacture of industrial goods in the economy. Here we define capital industrial goods to include equipment, machines, machine tools including engineering tools, scientific measuring and control instruments, including fast computers, etc.

In the absence of domestic capacity for the above activities, it is difficult if not inconceivable for any Nation to sustain any real Technology and Research Industry in her economy. The only way to have the products of Technology and Research Industry is by recourse to their importation and related services from industrial nations. That has been the lot of developing countries in Africa over the years.

The Thrust of the First Gordian Ezekwe Memorial Lecture:

In this first Lecture, in the series, one would attempt to treat technology development and its management, holistically and try to bring out the key roles played by primary raw materials, energy resources, human capacity for S&T activities, the demands for economic growth and development as well as War and Security, in charting and propelling the course of technology progress throughout the Ages. Thereafter, I will attempt to undertake an objective technological foresight. However the current technological development trends are a clear indication and an insight into what the future holds.

A starting point in this discussion is a review of the major highlights in technology developments which had occurred in the last 300 years beginning with the 18th Century industrial revolution triggered by Steam Power in Europe. Such a review will give clearer indications on how the developing countries had fared over the period and provide a launching pad for the formulation of the technology foresight for the 21st Century. This approach in my view, would have been adopted by the late Gordian Ezekwe, a very creative, down to earth and practical “bolts and nuts” Engineer in tackling the technological developments problems of the future.

“Technological” Heritage of Developing Countries in Africa

First, I believe, we should take our correct bearings as it relates to early “technological” (conventional technics of production and services) in the economy of most developing African countries including Nigeria. It is safe to state that throughout our history, before the advent of Colonization of Africa, our Societies seemed to have evolved by native wit and intuition, by trial and improvement, and by cause and effect in social engineering, the practical technics for their socio-economic development activities. By a judicious application of what was available to them such as wood, stone, clay, livestock energy for transportation, direct sunshine, biomass and fuel wood, etc. and by a serious determined effort, a delicate balance was maintained, in traditional African countries, between agriculture and traditional industry. This static technology heritage, transferred from family to family was however disrupted by long periods of Colonial rule which created a conflicting technology duality namely traditional technological sector for rural African population co-existing with modern technological sector transferred from Europe in small urban centers. This disruption could not have been intrinsically bad per se, but for what it failed to do. For instance, it failed to introduce constructively, the new aptitude, attitude, the technical skills, the practical engineering and fabrication knowledge, the clinical setting i.e. the infrastructure, required for reproducing, improving, and varying domestically, the new modern technics (technologies) being introduced. In place of these vital requirements, the Colonial system rather introduced general maintenance and marketing skills through modern multi-national marketing and distributing companies such as UAC, Uni-Lever Brothers, PZ, John Holt, CFAO, etc. in order to ease the distribution and consumption of the introduced foreign technologies and their derivatives among the “African Natives”, thus perpetuating foreign technology dependence and technological duality, a challenge, the developing countries in Africa are yet to overcome.

The Rise of Modern Science in the 17th Century AD and the emergence of the 18TH Century AD Industrial/Technological Revolution, all in Europe.

Europe alone witnessed first-hand, and exploited to the full, the rise of Modern Science and the first technology revolution in the latter part of the 18th century. This industrial revolution was heralded by the discovery of Steam power, which was systematically exploited through the new discipline of what is called Engineering Science which emerged in Europe in 18th Century AD, after the rise of Modern Science in Europe, in the development of modern industrial and sophisticated technologies for transportation in terms of steam engine ships, railway locomotives drawn by steam engines, followed by setting up of machine production factories inland away from Water Falls locations. Before then, most of the factories were sited along the Coasts or Water Falls locations to take advantage of the Water falls leading to the development of Lacombe engine technology for this purpose.

The emergence of Steam power technology led to high demands for energy raw materials for its sustenance. Thus, Coal, particularly Bituminous Coals become a very important energy source for Steam engines, for foundry and furnaces in forming and molding materials, for the utilization of steam technology. Thus arose in Europe blacksmiths, hammer-smiths, etc. Britain with large deposits of coking coal reaped high dividends. African countries with such energy and metallic raw materials as coal, iron ore, bauxite for aluminum, became hot cakes for European powers eager to utilize the new technological development and compete with one another. The early Larcombe engines became obsolete and were discarded in place of a new Technology which emerged in the 19th Century AD.

In the 19th century AD, Europe again witnessed another technological revolution. This latter Revolution was triggered and propelled by the spread and application of Electrical power technology, which led to setting up Electrical and allied industries for the application of coded messages on copper wire, telegraph and telephones, Radios, electrical lighting of houses, electrical power for turbines and for elevations for high rise buildings. In addition, electricity brought about the advancement of chemistry, which had allowed man to make for the first time products outside natural materials in the form of synthetics, plastics, petrochemicals etc. which seriously threatened countries with rubber, cotton and basic chemical raw materials. In order to sustain and advance these technological development, Europe, North America and Japan, in particular, went into intensive and extensive knowledge acquisition in science and engineering, followed by rigorous industrial research and development work, engineering design and fabrication skills acquisition to take advantage of the new technological industrial revolution.

Although African countries were at that time, completely ignorant and bypassed by these technological developments, they nevertheless contributed immensely in their ignorance to the progress of the Industrial revolutions by supplying the necessary primary raw materials such as copper, e.g., Zambia and DRC, in order to sustain the revolutions going on in Europe and elsewhere outside Africa. However African countries, as Colonial territories, were compensated by serving as markets and consumers of the products of the technological progress in which they could not, and in fact made little or no effort, to participate in these Revolutions and technological developments. This is why the culture of Science and Technology activities abandoned and forsaken African Countries and Africa paid the price in being colonized to provide the raw materials which Africa has in abundance as feedstock for Industrial Revolutions taking place elsewhere. So those blaming Africa for its technological underdevelopment should please be more charitable.

Examination of the Role of Energy Sources in Technology Development Progress:

It is revealing to note, at this point that the progress of the industrialized countries in the last 300 years had been characterized by constantly increasing utilization of energy sources for fostering the course of technological developments. The early industrial age was based on coal energy alone. This was then increasingly replaced by petroleum discovered in late 19th century and which was found more versatile to use and which in the early 20th century gave rise to the development of technology based on petroleum products. The steam engines gradually went into decline and were replaced by internal combustion petroleum engines as opposed to open combustion coal engines. In the middle of the 20th century. Following the Second World War of 1939-1945, and the discovery of self-sustaining Nuclear-chain reaction, Nuclear power based on Uranium fissionable isotope 235 and Plutonium based on isotope 238 added to the existing sources of energy leading to the development of nuclear technologies and related industries. Again African countries, example former Belgian Congo now DRC, with Uranium fuel despites were courted by industrialized nations of Europe and North America to ensure safe and exclusive exploitation of this vital nuclear fuel for sustaining and competing in nuclear technology based industries. The response of African countries remained predictable, namely, supply and export of the needed raw materials and in return enjoy the fruit of other countries’ efforts and labor.

In the 1970s when high cost of crude petroleum oil threatened the economies of the industrial countries, the latter quickly turned to the development of new and renewable energy sources to sustain their energy needs just in case the price of petroleum oil gets out of hand.

The Emerging Third industrial Revolution

Then came, apparently, the most pervading third and on-going technological/industrial revolution which started in the 1950s and which has given rise to what is now referred to as information age. The current technological revolution was brought about by the discovery and application of micro-electronics which was ushered in by electrical semi-conductor materials, in particular silicon and germanium. Some of us a bit older will recall the large size and complexity of our Radio set and Radiograms of the 1950s, the mainframe Computers of the 1960s to the early 1970s, etc. and the kind of space they occupied before the emergence of micro-electronics. In that system we require 34eV to extract one electron from the cathode to anode in a diode –cathode electrical device. With semi-conductors, we need only 1/10 or, much less of 34eV to extract one electron in an Integrated circuit system. The microelectronic technological developments were massively, in the last 40 years, exploited in the design and fabrication of micro-electronic devices and systems. For instance, the Japanese, based on their culture and patience in extracting silk worms from cocoons for making expensive Silk materials had applied this culture and heritage in the massive development of micro-electronic integrated circuitry devices and chips. The ever increasing power of our micro and personal computers and many other micro-electronic silicon and magnetic materials industries together with our increasing knowledge of physics, engineering and chemistry of the micro-structure of raw primary materials as well as management of technology systems, the World is set to experience yet another technological revolution in the next millennium. The application of micro-electronics in natural language communications, machine translations, smart ships, electronic and optical fibers among others, together with application of genetic engineering/biotechnology and new materials technology, will shape the content of the New Industrial Revolution. Are developing African countries listening and ready for these new revolutions? Or will Africa do the usual, namely supply the required primary raw materials and conspicuously enjoy the resulting products?

With the above background, see also Table 1, Table 2 on the 8-stage process of technology innovation and developments, and Table 3 on Technology and Industrialization, it is possible to make some predictions and offer the following foresight on the technological developments in the 21st century and their implications for Africa’s developing countries.

The world, I believe, in the next millennium will become scientific knowledge intensive and highly technology driven with the emergence of sophisticated devices, software program devices, equipment, machinery and industrial plants, making some of the existing scientific and engineering infrastructure virtually obsolete. Developing African countries will be forced with the stark choice of moving forward technologically and remaining relevant or sink without trace. This Statement is not intended as a recipe for despair but an urge to the developing African countries to rise up with greater effort, courage and determination to ensure that they become part and parcel of the technological changes of the future.

Technological development forecast for the 21st century AD:

If one is guided by the increasing technological activities presently taking place in industries, business, universities, research institutions and government agencies particularly in Europe, North America and Japan, the triad, which together spend over 90% of the world’s expenditure in technology and industrial related R&D, it is possible to predict a number of future developments in science, engineering and technology in the first three decades of the 21st century, that is 30 Christmases from this year. This is possible based on what had been going on in last 40 years, technology development and technology innovation in the above triad of Europe, North America and Japan, which countries have become increasingly competitive and the chief drivers behind their long term economic growth, wealth creation, military superiority, security and improved standards of living.

The technology foresights, I believe, are going to be keenly along at least the following six main areas of technology innovation, and research and development:

· New materials technology developments

· Information Communication technology developments:

· Genetic technological development including genetic modification of crops and livestock

· Brain technological developments

· Energy sources related technologies; and

· Environmentally friendly technologies developments.

One sees emerging, an interdisciplinary approach in the physical, chemical, engineering, biological and medical sciences in tackling the developments in many of these technologies in the next millennium. The approach, content and shape of the education in the sciences and engineering will drastically change with the knowledge in the sciences being very intensive and extensive, and countries which fail to compete will accept the consequences of obsolescence, decline and or irrelevance. It will be useful therefore to consider briefly each of these identified technologies of the future.

New Materials Technology Developments

New material science and engineering is an important growth area in the next millennium. In the past, our industrial products and processes had to adapt to the existing conventional materials whether stone, wood or bone in the stone-age or the metals, wood, alloys, plastics of today. Since the middle of the 20th century, the world have acquired an intensive and extensive knowledge and management of the physical and chemical properties of matter, their micro-structure and its control, together with the structure-property relations of materials. Backed by this knowledge it is now possible to select, develop and engineer better performing materials or matrixes in place of conventional raw materials. This means we can now overcome the intrinsic performances and property constraints imposed on us by conventional materials at our disposal. We can create new materials whether composite, new fine polymers, new fine ceramics, new metals with performance properties and characteristic we desire. That is, we can design and engineer ceramics or fine polymer, or composite materials to conduct electricity or serve as a photo-sensitive material. With wafer and compact technologies we do not need large diameter iroko or mahogany wood to produce whatever size panel wood we need. Composite materials are those which are designed with base materials such as metal, fine ceramics, specialty polymer or engineering plastics and the reinforcing materials such as metal grift, or fibers, carbon fibers. Ceramics composites for instance can be made to be stronger, lighter and better performing than any metal. The developments on new materials technologies are now giving rise to intensive scientific knowledge based-industries in the triad Nations of Europe, North America and Japan. By the year 2025 it is expected that the new technology materials will become economic and may displace a number of our present conventional materials. It is possible then that the engine and drive train for instance may be replaced with electric motors and a small source of energy from fuel cell which can make vehicles travel 120km-160km per gallon. The consequences of this development on crude petroleum resources export are obvious.

The advances in new materials technologies are at the heart of developing Africa’s export commodities since the driving force behind the new materials is to shift dependence on conventional raw materials. These developments are future challenges to Africa countries whose economies are precariously tied to export of these raw materials now being threatened e.g. copper Zambia and DRC, crude petroleum oil, Nigeria, Gabon and Algeria, iron ore, Liberia, bauxite, Ghana and Guinea, coffee, Kenya and Ethiopia, and Cocoa Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria, and in the case of Coffee and Cocoa, appropriate flavors can be made.

The developing African countries may meet or mitigate some of these challenges through a number of measures, including

· Identification of special conventional raw materials which may serve as a feedstock for the new technology materials, e.g. rare earth materials, found abundantly in Africa and which will be consumed as a new material feedstock for micro-electronics, semi-conductor devices, photovoltaics, sensors, super conductors and magnetic material industries;

· Effecting changes in science and technology education curriculum to take into account the inter-disciplinary approach in new materials science and engineering;

· Establishing sustainable scientific and engineering infrastructure, including national physical and engineering standard test laboratories for endogenous capacity building in science technology and jettisoning the prevailing culture of technology import dependence in place of the laborious process of learning by doing serious technology task and management

Information Communication Technology Developments

Information communication technology (ICT) came into existence because it is now possible to couple fast micro-computers to telecommunications networks and bringing all these computer and telecommunication network in a world-wide-web. The continuing increase in computer power will affect every aspect of our personal lives, up to global management in which businesses are now essentially information machines. The long cycle of traditional way of doing business, such as financial transfer, conferencing, contractual agreements etc., which take a long time, can now be drastically shortened by ICT. As computers become more powerful, opportunities will be available in real-time management. Here the challenge for developing African countries lies in their response to computer education, computer literacy, computer software development, the design and production, maintenance and management of computer hardware and software through copy creativity design and production. Again this requires new orientation and concepts in the study of the disciplines of science, engineering, technology management, supported by intensive financing of research and development and copy engineering creativity in computer technology development and production. We should all aim at Nigeria’s “Bill Gates” in the next millennium by creating the necessary environment for creativity and intense knowledge and effort.

Genetics Technology Developments

A new revolution in our lives will come in full in the 21st century from manipulation in genetics. There is bound to be a symbiotic linkage between physics, chemistry, engineering and molecular biology. Genetically modified crops, plants and animals may become common place. Consider the on-going human genome project for instance. The project it is reported will assist in identifying the locus of some 5000 diseases and disorders of mankind and will involve research to identify the links between our genes and the manifestation of particular conditions in our lives. A boom in gene therapeutic and pharmacological drugs to deal with this conditions may result. New genetic knowledge will enhance life and genetic technological developments will eliminate specific conditions influencing our decisions on marriage and conception. In agriculture, molecular genetics expand our diet; make food more nutritious and even tasty.

The world population estimated at 6 billion in 1999 will by the year 2025, at an average growth rate of 3-3.5%, reach 8 billion. How do we feed this population, 2/3 of which will be domiciled in developing countries? Genetic manipulation will permit enhanced quality of many thousands of plants which are presently inedible and bring them into diet with long term concerns for safety, bio diversity and economy. Molecular biologists in association with physical and engineering scientists will become more skilled at altering gnome structures and basic enzymes thus producing materials which do not now exist in nature. For instance is it expected that DNA will serve as a model system for the study of polymers since the relatively long molecule at fluorescence can be imaged directly in an optical microscope. However, we must be ready to confront the cultural, local and religious questions arising from these technological development, including cloning techniques. Developing African countries must work harder to conserve their present genetic resources-plants, animals and microbes well as their germplasm for the preservation of African biodiversity.

Brain Technology Developments

There are a number of current developments in science and technology which relate to brain technology. A lot of data on the functioning of the human brain had been acquired within the last ten years, and will continue, than was the case in the last seventy years. In the past, scientists and engineers had relied mainly on accident to find out how the brain works. Recent techniques of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and position emission tomography, among other techniques, permit deeper probe and identification of the bases of “special mental, physiological, hormone, and personality, emotional and pathological conditions”. The recent “biochip” development, which has nothing to do with silicon computer chip, and MRI, involving scanning technique will lead to measurements of physical phenomena in the biological system. These developments will peak in the millennium.

Environmentally friendly Energy Technology and Developments

In January 1999, the new German Government in coalition with “Green party” had decided to phase out in the next five to ten years the nuclear power plants and the banning of reprocessing of nuclear waste. This is partly as a result of the increasing evidence of warming from green-house gases and the practical problem of preventing dangerous nuclear materials from leaking into the atmosphere or being used, surreptitiously by “rogue” individuals, as nuclear weapons. It is therefore possible that in the next millennium massive conservation of pollution fossil fuels may result. This may give way to new environmentally friendly energy technological developments for structure, transportation systems and industrial processes. Technology developments in photovoltaic for converting sunlight directly into electricity may become viable since global warming is likely to create more turbulent atmosphere. Recall the EL-NINO phenomenon. These energy systems are still speculative but one foresees in the next millennium novel technological developments in the area of safe and non-polluting energy sources.

Overview of Challenges and Conclusions

The challenges facing the developing countries of Africa posed by the technological developments of the 21st century are complex but may be addressed or met through a number of measures including policy, planning, education and execution of technology and industrial projects to enable Africa leap-frog into the new millennium. The convenient old blame of Colonization of Africa as the cause of its underdevelopment is now and even earlier unsustainable and should therefore have no place from now. Africa should now seriously avert its mind to the following, namely:

Policy Formulation

The new remedial policy framework must address the:

· Creation of immediate and sustainable environment for productive science, engineering, education, creative research and development work, and commercialization and application of domestic results and findings in technology innovation.

· Public education to create awareness of science and technology developments in the world and how they affect our economy, raw materials, and our overall well-being, and to appreciate the importance of domestic technology capacity as a corner stone for real industrialization, real economic progress and real wealth creation;

· Establishing sustainable and viable scientific and engineering infrastructure including national physical and engineering standards laboratories in terms of equipment, machinery, industrial plants, large core of domestic scientific and technological personnel, industrial material and chemicals, engineering tools as well as finance for massive domestic technology innovation, production of capital goods and industrial materials for the local economy;

· Encouraging symbiotic linkage between private sector, in particular, SMEs, the universities and research institutes to ensure technology innovation culture for the entire economy and for the culture of knowledge and its application or commercialization, as the main instrument for social and economic progress.

S&T Policy and Program Implementation

In terms of planning and execution it is vital to undertake a techno-economic inventory of local raw materials and minerals which may form the basis of new materials technologies in the new millennium and make them targets of science and technology research and development. In this case application of technology investment capital should focus on developing SMSs as agencies of employment, real wealth creation and economic growth.

Information Communication Technology (ICT) should be used to improve resource and technology management and domestic capability building both in the industry, research and technology development institutions and the University. But we must build domestic capacity for fast Computer hardware and software production in our domestic economy.

Massive financing of the basic scientific and engineering research should be used to enhance knowledge quality in the key sciences and engineering disciplines and the growth points in science and engineering for exploiting the micro-electronics technologies; new materials technologies, particularly, the semi-conductor silicon or magnetic materials industries which currently earn 300 billion US dollars per year, and magnetic storage industrial materials which earn 100 billion US dollars per year for the triad of USA, Europe and Japan. A recent Report indicates that India earns more from exports of Computer software per annum than Nigeria earns from Crude Petroleum Oil sales for the same period.

Research and Development Institutions

The research and Development institutions in developing Africa should in the light of the technology developments in the new millennium begin to see their priority as R&D, for competitive modern technologies production and industrial goods production in Africa. Technology Innovation should be used as a main strategy for domestic capacity building for technologies and capital goods production in Africa’s economy. The system of transfer of know-how and application of technology in processes and products should be used to support and promote industrial goods production in the SMEs. The essential feature for Research Institutions should be multidisciplinary, practical, market oriented, based on self-sustaining and semi-autonomous agencies, possessing unique know-how and facilities and be internationally competitive, in scope. The R&D Institutions must see their primary tasks as those of support for industry and communities with needed technologies. In this respect, Technology innovation/copy technology creativity is the way to go in the acquisition of new technologies and not by trying to re-invent the *Wheel+, and committedly in solving technical and allied problems of their target clients in particular SMEs and to be competitive. A new management leadership system, entrepreneurial and market centered, should be put in place in these R&D institutes to effect and promote the new orientation and culture. What is going on now in Nigeria’s R&D Institutions cannot lead to production of technologies and capital goods in Nigeria’s economy. The most critical change in S&T manpower is to put into effect a ratio of one (1) relevant Scientist, one (1) engineer, to four (4) middle level Technologists with relevant skills and to thirty (30) low level technicians with various technical and professional skills to operate in each R&D institution. The training Institutions for professional Skills acquisition are Polytechnics, Colleges of Technology and Technical Colleges which should award Diploma Certificates and not University Degrees. The important thing in Africa is to accord the same prestige for University Degrees and Technical Diploma and this must be reflected in remunerations and rewards as is done in Industrial Nations.

Globalization of the World Trade

On the challenges of globalization, which is now being imposed on developing countries by the industrialized world, particularly those of Europe, North America, and japan, otherwise known as the triad, in terms of S&T policy for the next millennium is on competitiveness and efficient solving of their society socio-economic problems. These polices are the main guiding priorities in research, technology development, industrial production and for competitiveness in the world market. This reality will intensity and result in a faster rate of obsolescence of existing technologies, know-how and experience, in addition to deepening the gulf of technological-economic duality between the industrialized countries and African developing countries.

Technology driven, knowledge intensive and alert industries, companies, firms and businesses with their management focused on technological aspirations utilization, etc. will pose a great challenge to technology inert enterprises in developing African countries most of which may sink without trace, weighted down by the burden of competition and irrelevance.

Globalization of technology and economy will replace the old multi-national, the negative impacts of which developing African economies are yet to recover from. How will African countries cope with trade in the “Made in the World” manufactured goods market? How will African Countries compete in the world market with the triad which controls over 95% expenditure on R & D where Africa’s contribution is only 0.8%? What should Africa do? How can Africa develop her internal market with human-centered factories for her population on one leg and develop a niche in the global market on the second leg? African Countries may be able to export our raw materials after adding value to them in semi-processed forms.

These are issues and challenges which require deep and sustainable research, technology and rigorous industrial policies for the next millennium. Those who are involved in the Nigeria 2010 Vision should also anticipate the vision of high costs of technologies, skill, infrastructure and information technology operational facilities in the 21st Century and should take note of the on-going developments in trade blocks namely the NAFTA (North America Free Trade Area USA, Canada, Mexico), the EEC and the Asian Free Trade Association (AFTA), etc., and note their implications for industrialization, markets, technology development and utilization in developing African Countries, for the possible actualization of the 2010 vision.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, African developing Countries should reflect on their journey so far in the last 300 years of technological progress, in which they played little or no active part leaving them with very little domestic capacity for the commanding tasks of technology and industrial goods manufacture and resolve not to repeat the situation in the 21st Century. In this respect, Africa with Nigeria leading, should as matter of deliberate policy and priority establish a self-sustaining globally competitive Technology and Research Industry capable of producing modern technologies and manufacturing industrial goods (capital, consumer items and industrial materials) in their respective economies for domestic use and for exports.

The starting point in this resolution is to restructure and revamp the Scientific, Engineering and Economic development institutions and to map out a clear, time-bound sustainable scientific, technological and industrial goods production agenda for the next millennium. Such an agenda must be based on greater creative work, greater effort and rigorous discipline in which chance and political rhetoric play little or no part. Is it not possible or too much to expect then for Nigeria and other developing African Countries to aim at achieving the following targets by the year 2020? Specifically these targets are namely:

– 50% of the modern technologies in use in Nigeria and other countries in Africa to be domestically produced with domestic economy exporting high precision and international standard quality industrial products?

– 25% of exports to be in manufactured capital goods i.e. Equipment, machinery and industrial plants, scientific instruments and engineering tools?

– 90% of exports of raw materials in semi-processed forms?

– A thriving scientific, engineering and maintenance supporting infrastructure for the economic developing supporting tasks of road construction, telecommunications including fast computers development, agricultural production, petroleum oil products refining , gas products plants, and other related utilities, in order to reduce imports or near total dependence as at present on external sources, professionals or experts?

– Properly developed and well equipped technology innovative SMEs with engineering and fabrication divisions at the workshop floor of their operations to ensure good quality products and services for the economy and for full employment opportunities for the population;

– National standard well equipped physical, engineering and biological laboratories for creative research and services; and

– A thriving well-oriented and well-funded and purposeful education and training in science, technology, technical skills and entrepreneurship management to meet the practical, rigorous and demanding tasks of technology development and technology innovation in the 21st Century.

I believe it is possible but let us reflect on the above set Agenda.

Thank you and God bless…

Felix N.C. Oragwu FSAN

Chairman/Executive

Fencorax Technology Development Consult, Lagos.

Table 1

Technology Developments from 18th Century

Industrial Revolutions and the rise of modern science in the economy

	Period	Nature of Technology/Industry	Energy Source	Materials in use	Main driving technological Process
	Pre   1st Industrial Revolution	– Production/Processing   – Metalworking – Transportation – Military – Smiting industries	– Charcoal   – Coal – Wind – Waterfall – Sunshine – Oils (not petroleum) – Gunpowder – Horse Powder	– Charcoal   – Wood – Coal – Coastal water fails – Iron-ore – Lead and gold – Salt – Horse drawn carts/wagons – Precious metals	– Smiting   – Sail wind (Boat construction) – Gun barrel production – Bullet propellant – Production – Hand pumps technology – Larcombe engine – Foundry/casting – Furnace/technology
	18th Century Industrial Revolution and the rise of modern science	Transportation technology industries: railways, seaways, roads, etc.	– Steam engine power	– Steam and coal	– Steam engine technologies
	19th century Industrial Revolution.	Electrical/Electronics Industries, new Chemical Industries	– Electricity	– Copper   – New chemicals & materials, e.g. – Plastics – Petrochemicals – Synthetics	– Electrical equipment/machines based on electrical conductivity of copper, making of new chemicals and materials.
End of 19th Century	Petroleum Industries	Petroleum	Petroleum	Petroleum engine technology
Mid-20th Century	Nuclear Industry	Nuclear Energy	– Uranium   – Plutonium	Nuclear technology
Mid late 20th Century	Micro-electronic Industries	Electrical Energy	Semiconductor materials-silicon, germanium	Microelectronic devices, Microcomputer technology   Coupling of computers with telecommunication networks

Table 2

8-Stage Process of Technology Innovation and Development 

Table 3

A. Technology and industrialization in the 21st century.

1. There will be substantial change in the significance of technology which will lead to substantial change in industrialization. High Technology Industry will result.

2. Expected types of high Technology industries.

– New technologies based upon new scientific paradigms e.g. Nuclear Power Industries, Semi-conductor devices industries.

– New technologies based upon new technological paradigms, e.g.

– Micro-electronics,

– Mechatronics

– Robotics

– Experts system integration technology paradigms e.g. CAD/CAM system integration with Artificial Intelligence (A1) to take care of Man’s intelligence.

B. Perspectives in Science and Technology Education in the 21st century.

Traditional Engineering Areas	High Technology Areas	Traditional Scientific Areas
Architectural Engineering	-Design Theory	Physics
Mechanical Engineering	-Artificial Intelligence	Chemistry
Electrical Engineering	-Micro-electronics
Chemical Engineering	-Bio-engineering   -New ceramics -Engineering Plastics	Mathematics   Biology Logic
Production Engineering	-New Metals
Design	-Robotics

NOTE:

i. High Technology Areas are normally an integrated system.

ii. In view of developments in new materials technologies for High Technology Industries, an interdisciplinary approach in the teaching and research in science and technology will prevail.

iii. Artificial intelligence in High Technology industries is required in place of Man’s intelligence for

– Amendment of errors in design

– Adding data to insufficient design

– Understanding designers’ intention

– Checking material components defects, and

– Removal of defects, etc. before manufacture of technology by industry.

ADDENDUM:

For further Reading and for more information please see Part 2 of the Book by Felix N. C. Oragwu, titled “Science, Technology, Economic Activities and Poverty in Africa (Nigeria’s Experience, 1899-1999, as a Case Study)”. Part 2 of the Book deals with (i) the Great Men of Science and Technology starting from (i) the Ancient Science of Greece of Antiquity led by Pythagoras of Samoa (c530 BC) of Greece, reputed to be the father of Mathematics who introduced the Greek innovation in the form of deductive reasoning, quantitative calculations, measurements and actual investigations of the Universe (ii) the Great Men of Science of Europe led by Nicholas Copernicus, a Polish Priest and Astronomer(1473-1543, Johannes Kepler, 1571-1630, a German Physicist / Astronomer, who established the three fundamental laws of Planetary Motion, Galilei Galileo, 1564-1642 an Italian Physicist who validated the Helio-Centric Universe and Isaac Newton, 1642-1727 an English Mathematician who established the three famous Principal Laws of Motion to address clearly the knowledge of the Universe. These are the four great Giants of Modern Science who successfully transformed the Ancient Science of Greece of antiquity into Modern Science in Europe in 17th Century AD. It is the further development of the work of these four great Men of Science in Europe that to the development of modern Science based Technics of production and services (now referred to as modern Technologies) in Europe’s economy to bring about what is now referred to as an Industrial Economy distinguished by its daughter the Manufacturing Sector of the Economy. The Industrial economy differs from Conventional or Traditional Economy of hoes and cutlasses of Human heritage because it produces modern technologies and manufactures industrial goods (capital, consumer items and industrial materials) which the Conventional and or Traditional of primary agricultural materials and primary raw minerals cannot produce. This transformation process was triggered by the Steam Power Technologies, which led Railway Transportation Industries and the 18th Century AD Industrial Revolution. The discovery later of Electricity as a form of Energy led to Electrical Power based Technologies and Electricity Industries in in Europe’s economy and the second Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century AD. Let me end with the Hydro Carbons energy powered internal petroleum consumption Engines development in 19th late Century AD (as opposed Steam Engine Railway technology development of 18th Century), which led to the development motor cars/ vehicles for Road Transport away from the only existing Railway transportation system all in Europe.

The point being made by the above illustrations is that Science and Technology is not a Manna from Heaven but the result of a human effort and ingenuity. In fact Albert Einstein, the Great Scientist of the 20th Century had stated that “a Genius in Science and Technology evolves only after 99% Perspiration and 1% Intuition”.

Science and Technology is the Mother of Technology and Research Industry, the creator of enormous jobs and wealth in the Economy, and a formidable fighter against poverty and unemployment. Nigeria to address the productivity and the health of her economy should develop as a matter of great priority the domestic endogenous capability and or capacity to produce and manufacture modern technologies and globally industrial goods (capital, consumer items and industrial materials in her economy for use and for export to Industrial goods World market in particular through the process of Technology Innovation in her economy. That is the message this Address is all about and the Message the Address wants to send to Africa including Nigeria.